Trade insiders analyse how Prabhas, Amitabh Bachchan, Deepika Padukone-starrer Kalki 2898 AD can break Baahubali, RRR’s box office records
With a budget of Rs 600 crore, Nag Ashwin’s dystopian sci-fi film Kalki 2898 AD is the most expensive Indian film ever made. Borrowing heavily from the Indian epics and scriptures, the film gives a distinctive take on the legend of Kalki, the prophesised tenth avatar of Lord Vishnu. Packed with superstars, the film has been mounted on a massive scale making it the proverbial ‘pan-India’ release. But with great expectations, comes great responsibility. So Kalki 2898 AD needs to do exceedingly well at the box office in order to justify the planned sequel. But will it? And more importantly, how well can it do? Will it touch, or surpass the jaw-dropping marks set by all-time blockbusters like Baahubali, RRR, Dangal, and Jawan?
What are Kalki 2898 AD’s box office prospects?
Any big event film’s box office is dependent on two factors – the opening weekend and the hold. A big opening weekend gives a film that momentum it needs to score big. And then, if the film avoids big drop on the weekdays, it can set itself for a long, healthy run. The first factor usually depends on the buzz for the film, dictated by the star(s). Prabhas is doing the heavy lifting here for Kalki 2898 AD. Trade analyst Ramesh Bala says, “His star power will ensure that the film opens to packed houses in the Telugu states (Andhra Pradesh and Telangana). Outside this, even in centres like Bengaluru, his stardom is huge. There also, the film will open well.” But outside that, trade analysts say, the film is tracking like a dubbed Telugu release, including the Hindi centres.
However, Prabhas’ stardom cannot be denied. Each of his last four films – including the critically-panned Adipurush – grossed over Rs 120 crore on the release day. Ramesh Bala estimates that if all goes well, Kalki 2898 AD could even touch the Rs 150 crore mark. But for that, the film needs to increase its buzz over the next week before it releases.
Will Kalki 2898 AD enter the Rs 1000-crore club?
The big question is will Kalki 2898 AD enter the Rs 1000-crore club? So far, six Indian films have grossed over Rs 1000 crore worldwide, and the Nag Ashwin film would want to be the seventh. But for that, it will need good business in the Hindi market. The three highest-grossing films from south last year – Salaar, Leo, and Jailer – all did worldwide business between Rs 600-700 crore. That seems to be the ceiling for any film minus the Hindi market. Case in point – RRR and KGF Chapter 2. Both these films were huge hits in the Hindi belt and consequently, grossed twice as much as Leo and Jailer.
Ramesh Bala echoes, “If you look at the biggest performers from south, the pan-India hits like Baahubali, RRR, KGF 2, they all did Rs 300-500 crore business with their Hindi version. Kalki 2898 AD will need that. It has the potential given it stars Deepika Padukone and Amitabh Bachchan in big roles.” But other trade analysts are cautious with their verdict. Trade expert Atul Mohan says, “It is a big film with a huge star cast and the VFX looks great. The buzz is building steadily but the awareness about it in the Hindi belt needs to increase more. Maybe with the second trailer and songs, it will build. So, it has potential but its true performance will be clear only after the release. The advantage Kalki 2898 AD has that unlike Adipurush or Radhe Shyam, there is no negativity about it. People have not rejected it. That curiosity can work in it favour.”
The one thing going for Kalki 2898 AD is its buzz overseas. The film has already surpassed the advance booking mark set in the US by RRR and is on course to eclipse Baahubali 2. That is an indication that Prabhas-starrer can do well in the West.
Can Kalki 2898 AD beat Baahubali, RRR, Jawan?
But whether the film can cross marks set by Baahubali and RRR largely depends on how well the content is received. After all, Adipurush, too, was a pan-India film that opened over Rs 100 crore. But because of the sub-standard content, it could not even touch Rs 400 crore, let alone 1000. Here, some faith in director Nag Ashwin and his mettle is needed. The filmmaker has tackled a subject as big and ambitious as Kalki for the first time in his career. But he is a proven hand with his previous outings Mahanati and Yevade Subramanyam received praise. If he can bring his mastery over storytelling to this genre, then only sky is the limit for Kalki 2898 AD.
Kalki 2898 AD does have enough in its arsenal to launch big and sustain as well. If all goes well, Jawan’s lifetime collection of Rs 1150 crore should be well within its grasp, as should RRR’s haul of Rs 1300 crore. But anything beyond is a lottery. And of course, it could all fall apart like a pack of cards if the audience does not connect with the subject matter itself. But for the Telugu film industry’s sake, and for the conviction of brave filmmakers tackling new subjects, one hopes that it does.
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