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By Martin Graham | 11th Jun 2024
With Euro 2024 on the horizon, excitement is building for what could be one of the most competitive tournaments in history. Numerous teams are vying for the chance to be crowned continental champions in July, each hoping to emulate the surprise success of Greece in 2004. As the competition draws nearer, the potential for upsets and dramatic moments keeps fans on the edge of their seats.
The leading contenders
Opta’s renowned supercomputer has provided an intriguing analysis of the tournament favorites. England, under the guidance of Gareth Southgate, emerges with a promising 19.9% chance of securing their first European Championship victory on 14 July at the Olympiastadion. Despite their heartbreaking exit in the 2022 World Cup, France remains a formidable force with a 19.1% chance of triumph, narrowly trailing England. The French team, led by Kylian Mbappe, also holds a 30.4% likelihood of reaching the final, just behind England’s 31.1%.
Host nation Germany, benefiting from the home advantage, is seen as a strong contender with a 12.4% chance of winning a record fourth European title. Spain, aiming to surpass Germany’s achievements, has a 9.6% chance, while Portugal, potentially in Cristiano Ronaldo’s final international tournament, stands at 9.2%. The Netherlands, eager to redeem their recent performances, have a 5.1% chance, and reigning champions Italy hold a 5% probability of retaining their crown.
Potential surprisepackages
While Belgium, with stars like Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku, cannot be easily dismissed, their recent tournament form has tempered expectations, resulting in a 4.7% chance of winning. Denmark, who captured hearts by reaching the Euro 2020 semi-finals after Christian Eriksen’s dramatic collapse, are ninth favorites at 2.2%. Croatia, consistent performers on the big stage, are given a 2% chance of victory, completing the top ten favorites.
For Scotland, the odds of a deep run might seem slim with a 1% chance of overall victory, but a 23.5% chance of making it to the quarter-finals provides some optimism. Ukraine and Serbia share the same 1% chance of winning, underscoring the unpredictable nature of the tournament.
As Euro 2024 approaches, the blend of established powerhouses and potential dark horses sets the stage for an unforgettable footballing spectacle in Germany. Fans worldwide are brimming with anticipation, ready to witness the drama and excitement unfold.
Martin Graham is an MFF sports writer
