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With the 2024 U.S. presidential elections heating up next week in the form of the first debate, Goldman Sachs’ portfolio strategy research team took a look at American companies which have the biggest exposure to domestic and international sales.
Current predictions call for a Republican victory, which would most likely see the return of former President Donald Trump. Goldman Sachs believes any legislation changes would probably affect the U.S. dollar, which in turn could influence the performance of companies.
“The first 2024 presidential debate will be held next Thursday, June 27th. Prediction markets assign a 42% probability to a Republican sweep. The policy outcomes from the election will likely impact the USD and the relative performance of equities with domestic vs. foreign sales,” Goldman Sachs analyst David Kostin said in a research note on Friday.
“We analyzed company level geographic sales data … The 22% weight of Semis in our International Sales basket (GSTHINTL) has contributed to the 5 pp YTD outperformance relative to our Domestic Sales basket (GSTHAINT). Geopolitical tension and tariffs are potential headwinds to our International Sales basket, which underperformed following the 2016 election and during the 2018 trade war,” Kostin added.
Goldman said the GSTHINTL and the GSTHAINT baskets each consisted of 50 S&P 500 (SP500) stocks with the highest revenue exposure to non-U.S. sales and sales in the U.S., respectively.
“The median GSTHAINT stock derives 0% of its revenues from abroad vs. 70% for the median GSTHINTL stock. International sales account for 28% of revenues for the median S&P 500 company,” Goldman’s Kostin said.
See below for a breakdown of the constituents of Goldman’s international sales basket (GSTHINTL) as of June 20:
Communication Services
- Meta Platforms (META): annual sales – $135B; non-U.S. sales – 63%.
- News Corp (NWSA): annual sales – $10B; non-U.S. sales – 62%.
- Netflix (NFLX): annual sales – $34B; non-U.S. sales – 59%.
- Electronic Arts (EA): annual sales – $7B; non-U.S. sales – 58%.
- Match Group (MTCH): annual sales – $3B; non-U.S. sales – 54%.
Consumer Discretionary
- Las Vegas Sands (LVS): annual sales – $10B; non-U.S. sales – 100%.
- Booking Holdings (BKNG): annual sales – $21B; non-U.S. sales – 89%.
- BorgWarner (BWA): annual sales – $14B; non-U.S. sales – 84%.
- Aptiv (APTV): annual sales – $20B; non-U.S. sales – 65%.
- McDonald’s (MCD): annual sales – $25B; non-U.S. sales – 59%.
Consumer Staples
- Philip Morris International (PM): annual sales – $35B; non-U.S. sales – 100%.
- Estée Lauder (EL): annual sales – $16B; non-U.S. sales – 76%.
- Bunge Global SA (BG): annual sales – $60B; non-U.S. sales – 73%.
Energy
- SLB (SLB): annual sales – $33B; non-U.S. sales – 84%.
- Baker Hughes (BKR): annual sales – $26B; non-U.S. sales – 74%.
Financials
- Mastercard (MA): annual sales – $25B; non-U.S. sales – 70%.
- Aflac (AFL): annual sales – $17B; non-U.S. sales – 62%.
- MSCI (MSCI): annual sales – $3B; non-U.S. sales – 59%.
- Visa (V): annual sales – $33B; non-U.S. sales – 57%.
- Aon (AON): annual sales – $13B; non-U.S. sales – 56%.
- Marsh McLennan (MMC): annual sales – $23B; non-U.S. sales – 52%.
Health Care
- Moderna (MRNA): annual sales – $7B; non-U.S. sales – 72%.
- Viatris (VTRS): annual sales – $11B; non-U.S. sales – 69%.
- Waters Corp (WAT): annual sales – $3B; non-U.S. sales – 69%.
- Agilent Technologies (A): annual sales – $7B; non-U.S. sales – 65%.
- Mettler-Toledo International (MTD): annual sales – $4B; non-U.S. sales – 64%.
- Abbott (ABT): annual sales – $40B; non-U.S. sales – 61%.
Industrials
- Otis Worldwide (OTIS): annual sales – $14B; non-U.S. sales – 72%.
- Nordson (NDSN): annual sales – $3B; non-U.S. sales – 66%.
- Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD): annual sales – $9B; non-U.S. sales – 64%.
- Emerson (EMR): annual sales – $15B; non-U.S. sales – 58%.
Information Technology
- Qualcomm (QCOM): annual sales – $36B; non-U.S. sales – 96%.
- Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR): annual sales – $2B; non-U.S. sales – 95%.
- Lam Research (LRCX): annual sales – $17B; non-U.S. sales – 90%.
- NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI): annual sales – $13B; non-U.S. sales – 89%.
- KLA (KLAC): annual sales – $10B; non-U.S. sales – 88%.
- Jabil (JBL): annual sales – $35B; non-U.S. sales – 86%.
- Applied Materials (AMAT): annual sales – $27B; non-U.S. sales – 85%.
- Teradyne (TER): annual sales – $3B; non-U.S. sales – 84%.
- onsemi (ON): annual sales – $8B; non-U.S. sales – 81%.
- Broadcom (AVGO): annual sales – $36B; non-U.S. sales – 81%.
- Microchip Technology (MCHP): annual sales – $8B; non-U.S. sales – 75%.
- TE Connectivity (TEL): annual sales – $16B; non-U.S. sales – 74%.
- Intel (INTC): annual sales – $54B; non-U.S. sales – 74%.
- Fortinet (FTNT): annual sales – $5B; non-U.S. sales – 70%.
- Western Digital (WDC): annual sales – $12B; non-U.S. sales – 69%.
- Corning (GLW): annual sales – $14B; non-U.S. sales – 67%.
Materials
- Newmont (NEM): annual sales – $12B; non-U.S. sales – 100%.
Real Estate
- Equinix (EQIX): annual sales – $8B; non-U.S. sales – 62%.
Utilities
- AES (AES): annual sales – $13B; non-U.S. sales – 65%.
